Vendée Globe

With six days to go before the start of the sixth Vendée Globe, the latest weather forecasts suggest that when the gun is fired at 13h02 (local time) on Sunday 9th November and during the first hours of racing, the competitors will be subject to moderate headwinds... And the wind is not likely to strengthen much after Cape Finisterre.

What will the weather be like?  That is one of the questions being raised on the Vendée Globe pontoons a few days before the start. As the experts are coming up with various forecasts, there is a lot of analysis of the charts going on to know what the thirty solo yachtsmen will be experiencing between Les Sables d'Olonne and the Canaries, which represent the first milestone on the round the world voyage... To begin, it looks like rain with an easterly wind easing off later today, with the thundery low stationary over the Bay of Biscay over the past few days gradually filling to disappear over Spain on Tuesday evening.  Tomorrow looks like offering finer weather with the sun expected to return tomorrow afternoon with a light to moderate north-easterly.
 
On Wednesday, the final day of the school holidays for French schoolchildren, the temperature is likely to fall because of a moderate northerly wind, but it is forecast to be sunny: They should take advantage of those moments of sunshine, because Thursday does not look quite so good with the arrival of a low during the evening.  A lot of rain is forecast for Friday lunchtime, but this cold front will pass over very quickly with a moderate westerly veering north-westerly later in the day...
 
A weekend at the seaside...
 But what about the big weekend for the start of the Vendée Globe?  Firstly, we should remember that it has been autumn now for a month and a half.  A deep, indeed, very deep low will be affecting the British Isles with winds in excess of forty knots over Ireland... Consequently, les Sables d'Olonne will be on the southern edge of this area of low pressure, which will rapidly move off eastwards.  Saturday will be fine and mild with a light to moderate south-westerly flow under clear skies. It will get wetter during the night as a front passes over bringing some rougher weather, although Sunday looks pleasant enough, in spite of stronger winds off les Sables d'Olonne: a fifteen to twenty knot south-westerly, a heavy swell out at sea and variable conditions, while the temperature will be fine for a sea trip.

For the thirty solo yachtsmen, the start of the voyage looks like being fairly gentle with upwind conditions, forcing them to tack across the Bay of Biscay in the first few hours.  Twenty to twenty-five knot west-south-westerlies easing off and veering westerly during their first night at sea.  We are unlikely to see any major options come into play, but as they pass Cape Finisterre, the strategy will be important: a high-pressure area will be building off Portugal and the winds are likely to vanish  for a few hours off Porto... A first hurdle for the yachtsmen, shaking up the rankings before the Canaries?

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