Vendée Globe

The fleet stretches out this Wednesday morning over 150 miles and all the solo skippers are benefiting from similar weather conditions, but as they skirt by the Azores high pressure system, the isobars start to curve around and the routes will change as they gybe this afternoon off Madeira

When exactly should they carry out this manoeuvre? That is the question facing the leaders this morning, as they sail at more than 12 knots towards Madeira.  The islands are 400 miles ahead and the monohulls are sailing on the Eastern edge of the Azores high this morning in a 15-knot northerly to north-easterly flow.  As they make their way further south, the isobars start to curve around and a 20-knot NE'ly is forecast for lunchtime, before veering E'ly at the latitude of Gibraltar, while remaining at around twenty knots. As the boats are not sailing with the wind completely astern but at 140° to the real wind under gennaker and full mainsail, the change in wind direction will force the skippers to move away from the direct route and when their bearing reaches 240°-250°, they will gybe to sail on the port tack at 160°-170°.

Now or later?

Where should they be positioned in comparison to the rest of the fleet?  This morning, the difference in longitude between the leaders Jean-Pierre Dick (Paprec-Virbac 2) and Sébastien Josse (BT) has reached 60 miles. Logically, the leeward boat should be the first to gybe, as she is the furthest south: she is due to experience the change in wind direction to NE'ly one or two hours earlier. If there was a delay in gybing, she would find herself on the same course as the others further west… Moreover, as the wind will veer further eastwards as the hours pass, she will be able to soak due south or even 200°-220°, which is close to the optimum course to pass the Canaries on their western side.

But the science of strategy is longer term, something that plays out over five days.  Some weather charts indicate that the wind will be stronger along the coast of Mauritania between the Canaries and Cape Verde, blowing at around twenty knots from the north to the north-east, while further off the coast the wind is expected to be a 15-knot easterly… The sailors are therefore going to have to plan ahead for this weekend to look to how they will tackle the Doldrums…. already. In these settled conditions they have some time to spend at the computer.  Of course preparing for the mid term and the long term is important, evaluating the weather models and all the supplementary information to choose their best route but it is also important to try and second guess their rivals.  Going it alone, simply chasing the routing, is often not the best of ideas in this type of ocean racing. It is still important to stay in close contact, getting the balance right. Defending your position is a basic concept in such racing. The leader or leaders have the advantage over those chasing after them and tend to set the pace… This afternoon, we need to watch to see who will be the first to gybe.

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