According to mathematics, the 2013 Vendée Globe winner will be a dark-eyed 34.5-year-old Frenchman born in Brittany. He will win the race on a white IMOCA monohull and his previous performances will include wins in the Solitaire du Figaro, a transatlantic race or a circumnavigation.
This « statistical » winner is not that virtual since there is a skipper actually matching these characteristics. When taking a look at the entrants list of this seventh edition, it becomes clear that the 2012 winner will be… Armel Le Cleac’h on Banque Populaire. The Saint-Pol-de-Léon-born Breton is 35 and he has won the Solitaire du Figaro twice - in 2003 and 2010. Le Cléac’h already shares a lot with the statistical winner but he still needs a white yacht. Let’s say Banque Populaire is white enough to fit the description.
In theory, Armel is the 2013 Vendée Globe winner but to match the statistics - based on data from the previous edition – he would have to cover 26,505 miles in 4 days less than Michel Desjoyeaux’s record (84 days and 3 hours). He also needs to cross the finish line 3 days and 8 hours ahead of the race’s second and 46 days ahead of the last skipper.
Around January 19, we’ll find out whether Armel Le Cléac’h’s white and blue monohull actually sails in the Sables d’Olonne fairway as a Vendée Globe winner…