Between the high pressure area in the south and South Africa, a series of small low-pressure area are bubbling up with fronts, and erratic winds have been in place for several days and this will be the case until Wednesday. By then, the leading group will already be at the latitude of Salvador da Bahia, still with east south-easterly winds. Thus there is no short cut to cut across towards the Cape of Good Hope, as the further east the boat, the stronger the headwinds. The normal route, which means a gradual route towards South Africa seems to be blocked for the moment. If this configuration lasts they will have to sail upwind down almost the whole of the South Atlantic to 32° South, or more than 1500 miles and practically a week of sailing… Already 46 hours outside of the 2004 record time to the Equator, the fleet would lose even more days in this stretch to the Cape of Good Hope.
At the moment, it is too early to tell what exactly will happen in the South Atlantic, but the question will be raised by the solo sailors on Monday evening, as choices will need to be made: a move towards the Brazilian coast to sail more quickly or hug the wind to move south-eastwards to pick up the headwinds as soon as possible. Or maybe wait patiently for the situation to evolve so that a decision can be made later. They will all be watching each other. Once again, those chasing on behind should have an advantage watching what happens to then leaders. It's not easy being at the front!
DB